This February, he brought together more than 600 senior decision-makers from around the world, including heads-of-state, ministers, leading personalities of international and non-governmental organizations, as well as high ranking representatives of industry, media, academia, and civil society, to engage in an intensive debate on current and future security challenges.
My take-aways from participating in this year's MSC:
1. On Russia. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said, "We are back in the Cold War." His country's bombing of Aleppo and other parts of Syria has gotten the Russians back on the global stage through brutality that has caused new waves of refugees to emerge, which have the effect of destabilizing Europe, particularly Germany. It is unlikely that sanctions will be loosened. Moreover, Russia was seen as another destructive force alongside the Islamic State. Russia was also denounced for actively supporting right wing movements in Europe, with Pegida and Front National getting financial support and training from Russian foundations. In addition, the Russians were allegedly behind a large number of cyber-attacks targeting EU governments, agencies and companies. (According to Timotheus Höttges, the CEO of Telekom, there were reportedly one million attacks in 2015.)
2. On the risk of war. Russia and the US are supporting the Syrian Kurds in the fight against IS, but the expectation was that Turkey would intervene in Syria to stop the Kurds from using their new powers to establish an autonomous region. This raises the possibility of Turkish troops directly facing Russian soldiers within 30 kilometers of the border – prompting NATO representatives to expect an "Article 5" or Collective Defense scenario.
3. On Europe. Europe's foreign and security policy is viewed as a total failure – and the disparity between Eastern and Western Europe is seen as a real threat to the European Union.
4. On the United States. The US was less prominent at this year's MSC than in recent years. US State Secretary John Kerry did not provide leadership on any of the topics. Senator John McCain confronted the Russians openly but appeared to lack ideas on the way forward himself. The entire American delegation boycotted the gala dinner hosted by Bavarian Minister-President Horst Seehofer to protest his recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as did the overwhelming number of German parliamentarians. Business leaders were pleased by the announcement that the Obama government will definitely bring in a draft of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership by fall 2016, which would make it mandatory for the new American president to ratify the contract.
5. On the refugee crisis. The widely shared view seemed to be that the current wave of refugees is not the peak but rather only the start of a migration trend that will persist for decades. Interestingly, experts and politicians agreed that there would be no effective way of shutting the external borders of EU – neither on land nor at sea – and that the EU would need to intervene in those countries receiving an overwhelming number of refugees. At the same time, many appeared to believe that the EU will unable to meet these needs in the short- and medium-terms.
6. On potential health crises. A panel dealt with other security threats, highlighting health as an issue. Pandemics are expected to increase, with UN experts estimating new kinds of illnesses with the potential to kill between ten to 20 million people in a span of eight to ten weeks, thereby destabilizing entire regions and causing further waves of refugees, spreading the illnesses to Europe rapidly.
Follow Torsten Oltmanns on Twitter: @TorstenOltmanns.
